The death of Representative Doug LaMalfa, a California Republican, will further shrink the GOP’s slim margin in the House of Representatives.
Their majority is now just five seats, and could narrow further in the coming months.
Costas Panagopoulos, professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek the slim margin makes it more of a challenge to keep the GOP coalition unified on any vote, as even just a small number of defections could “make it impossible for the Republican majority to pass legislation.”
The Context
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota confirmed LaMalfa’s passing in a post on X, describing him as a “loving father and husband, and staunch advocate for his constituents and rural America.”
Prior to his death, Republicans already were facing a tight majority of 219-213, with former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene officially leaving Congress on Monday. The historically tight margin could be more challenging to navigate for House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, as he works to pass legislation over the coming months.
What to Know
Republicans now hold 218 seats in the House of Representatives following LaMalfa’s death, while Democrats hold 213.
But that could narrow even further over the coming months. Democrats are expected to pick up another seat in the special election in Texas’ 18th Congressional District on January 31, 2026. Two Democrats, Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards, advanced to the runoff in the race to replace the late Representative Sylvester Turner, who died last year.
Democrats are also favored in the April 16 special election in New Jersey’s 11th district to fill the seat vacated by the state’s Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat. The seat generally backs Democrats, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classified the race as being Safe Democrat.
If Democrats win both of those seats, as expected, the majority would become 218-215—meaning Republicans could afford only a single defection or absence on any bill.
Panagopoulos said it will be interesting to watch for whether Johnson’s approach changes at all with regards to making more room for Democratic influence and how he deals with members in his own caucus.
“These developments have now raised the importance of any individual Republican House member who can almost single handily control what Republicans can do in the House,” he said. “Virtually anyone can emerge as a potential derailment to Johnson’s efforts to do just about anything.”
Meanwhile, Representative Jim Baird, an Indiana Republican, was hospitalized after a car crash. President Donald Trump said he will be fine, Politico reported. It remained unclear how soon he will return to Congress.
Panagopoulos noted that Republicans are getting “dangerously close” to a situation where Democrats could flip control of the chamber. Still, he said deaths and retirements could “just as easily” happen to Democrats, and would be “just as problematic for Democrats given the composition of the House at the moment.”
Johnson paid tribute to LaMalfa in a statement posted to X Tuesday morning.
“Congress is devastated to learn this morning about the passing of our dear friend and colleague, Doug LaMalfa. Doug was a lifelong resident of northern California and deeply loved its people. He was as fierce of a fighter for his state’s vast natural resources and beauty as we have ever known. We are mourning the loss of our friend and brother today and we send our respects for his life and work to his wife Jill and the LaMalfa family during this difficult time,” he wrote.
What People Are Saying
Fox News journalist Chad Pergram wrote on X: “GOP CA Rep Doug LaMalfa has died. He was 65 It’s about the math. With the resignation of former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), the GOP majority goes to 218-213 with 431 members. Two Texas Democrats are in a runoff for a House seat later this month. So Democrats gain a seat there. With 432 members then, it goes to 218-214. And Rep. Jim Baird (R-IN) is out because of a car accident. He is in the hospital.”
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, paid tribute to LaMalfa in a statement: “A fourth generation rice farmer, he fought passionately for the region’s agricultural community and small businesses, and in 2024 was elected Chairman of the Congressional Western Caucus, which focuses on the priorities of Western and rural America. He also worked to bolster disaster recovery efforts and funding for rural schools. Doug was a hardworking team player and happy warrior, known to spread joy throughout Capitol Hill with his famous LaMaffles. Doug will be deeply missed.”
Senator Adam Schiff, a California Democrat, wrote to X: “I am deeply saddened by the death of Congressman Doug LaMalfa—who I considered a friend and partner. Above all, he was deeply committed to his community and constituents, working to make life better for those he represented.”
What Happens Next
California Governor Gavin Newsom has not announced a special election date for the seat; a date has also not been set for the race to fill Greene’s seat, where Republicans would be favored.
LaMalfa’s district is solidly conservative, so Republicans would generally be favored to hold it as well. However, it is viewed as a potential flip in the midterms due to the new map passed by California voters last year that would give it a Democratic tilt. The Cook Political Report classifies it as Solid Democrat under the new map.